2007 CE Predictions

Roman's Readings (add annotations upon completion to bibliography and cite):

Roman's Prediction Market Articles:

Wolfers, Zitzewitz - Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

Hanson - The Informed Press Favored the Policy Analysis Market
Hanson - Information Aggregation and Manipulation in an Experimental Market

Wolfers, Zitzewitz - Prediction Markets

Gjerstad - Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium
Hanson - Futarchy

Abromowicz - Deliberative Information Markets for Small Groups

ABRAMOWICZ - INFORMATION MARKETS, ADMINISTRATIVE DECISIONMAKING, AND PREDICTIVE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS

Abramowicz - Predictive Decision Making

Roman's Cost-Benefit Articles:

Adler and Posner - Rethinking Cost-Benefit Analysis

Adler - The Positive Political Theory of Cost-Benefit Analysis:  A Comment on Johnston

Johnston - A Game Theoretic Analysis of Alternative Institutions for Regulatory Cost-Benefit Analysis

Kneisner, Viscusi - Why Relative Economic Position Does Not Matter

Matthew D. Adler, Eric A. Posner - Implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis When Preferences Are Distorted
Steven's Readings

Steven's Prediction Market Articles:

Sunstein - Deliberation and Information Markets Finished at 11:22 pm 2/26/07

Wolfers, Zitzewitz - Five Open Questions about Prediction Markets Finished at 6:47 pm 2/24/07

Ledyard - Designing Information Markets for Policy Analysis Finished at 7:29 pm 2/25/07

Wolfers, Zitzewitz - Prediction Markets (probably should both read this one) Finished at 3:39 pm 2/24/07
Hanson - Foul Play in Information Markets

Berg and Rietz - The Iowa Electronic Markets: Stylized Facts and Open Issues
Hahn and Tetlock - A New Tool For Promoting Economic Development

ABRAMOWICZ - INFORMATION MARKETS, ADMINISTRATIVE DECISIONMAKING, AND PREDICTIVE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSISFinished at 5:51 pm 3/2/07

Einbinder - Information Markets: Using Market Predictions to Make Administrative Decisions

Abramowicz, Henderson - Corporate Prediction Markets

Hanson - Combinatorial Information Market Design

Steven's Cost Benefit Articles:

Office of Management and Budget - Circular A-94

Aldred - Cost-Benefit Analysis, Incommensurability and Rough Equality

Sunstein - Cognition in Cost-Benefit Analysis

Posner - Controlling Agencies With Cost-Benefit Analysis: A Positive Political Theory Perspective

Sunstein, Frank - Cost-Benefit Analysis and Relative Position

Steven's Random Thoughts For the Thesis Paper -
Pareto Defense, Kaldor-Hicks Defense, Moral Criterion, Policy section, Potential Mathematical Modeling, Expand on Abramowicz and see if Einbinder or someone else had other ideas

Basketball Arena Test Market - http://home.inklingmarkets.com/trades/new/15514